Broadening Wedges and Right-Angled Formations — The Full Guide
There's a family in the pattern catalog that gets talked about rarely, and it has one of the more interesting gaps between name and behavior: right-angled broadening formations and broadening wedges. They look like tilted megaphones, sound ominous ("broadening" = chaos, "descending" = decline), and Bulkowski's statistics say their piece: the more this family tilts downward, the more often it breaks upward.
Specifically: the ascending variant (RABF ascending) breaks up in 55% of cases. The descending variant (RABF descending) — in 64%. And the descending broadening wedge, with both lines running downward — in as much as 72%. Anyone trading these patterns "by the name" is trading against the table.
How to Identify Right-Angled Broadening Formations and Wedges
The common denominator of the family: the range of swings widens over time — successive swings get bigger, the opposite of triangles. The line geometry is what tells them apart:
- Ascending RABF: the lower line is horizontal, the upper line rises. Progressively higher highs against fixed support. A megaphone tilted up.
- Descending RABF: the upper line is horizontal, the lower line falls. Progressively lower lows against fixed resistance. A megaphone tilted down.
- Descending broadening wedge: both lines fall, but they diverge. The whole structure tilts downward while the range widens.
- At least 5 touches combined: three highs or three lows touching one line plus at least two touches of the other. A single wick crossing a line isn't a touch — that most often happens at the start of the pattern and at the breakout.
- Volume usually rises as the pattern forms (in the ascending RABF, in 62–63% of cases; the descending wedge also trends upward) — another difference from triangles, where volume dries up.
- Confirmation: a candle close beyond the line. In broadening patterns this matters even more than usual, because the wide swings generate plenty of false intraday breaks.
Watch out for close relatives: if both lines diverge symmetrically — that's a megaphone. If both rise and diverge — that's an ascending broadening wedge (a separate, weaker structure). If the lines converge — you're looking at a triangle or a classic wedge, and completely different numbers apply.
[Chart coming soon: Three diagrams side by side — ascending RABF (flat bottom, rising top), descending RABF (flat top, falling bottom), and the descending broadening wedge (both lines falling, diverging); each with an arrow showing the most common breakout direction and its percentage: 55%, 64%, 72%]
What the Numbers Say (Bulkowski, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns)
Terms: failure rate — how often price, after a confirmed breakout, failed to travel even 5% in the breakout direction; average move — from breakout to extreme, on perfect trades; throwback/pullback — a return to the breakout line within 30 days; target % — the measure rule's hit rate. Bull market, US stocks.
| Metric | Ascending RABF | Descending RABF | Desc. Broadening Wedge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upside breakout | 55% | 64% | 72% |
| Rank up/down (1 = best) | 18/39 · 25/36 | 19/39 · 18/36 | 27/39 · 29/36 |
| Failure rate up/down | 15% / 28% | 21% / 23% | 18% / 35% |
| Average move up/down | +43% / −14% | +43% / −15% | +39% / −13% |
| Throwback / pullback | 68% / 63% | 64% / 69% | 62% / 64% |
| Target up/down | 67% / 40% | 65% / 51% | 83% / 32% |
| Sample (n) | 551 / 455 | 601 / 335 | 757 |
Conclusions, slowly:
The whole family is structurally bullish. The average gain after an upside breakout is 39–43%; the average decline after a downside breakout is a mere 13–15%. Even when a "descending" pattern breaks the way its name suggests, the move is statistically shallow. Shorting these setups is a small-stakes bet with a frequent pullback (63–69%) that tests your nerves.
The descending broadening wedge is the best long in the family — but not because it rises the most. By rank it's average (27/39), since +39% isn't a record in the catalog. Its strength lies in predictability: 72% upside breakouts and a target hit rate of 83% — one of the highest figures in the whole catalog. You know which way it's going and how far. The flip side: a downside breakout is rare and carries a dismal failure rate (35%) — nothing to look for there.
The partial decline is this family's ace. Price bounces off the upper line, drifts down, but doesn't reach the lower line before reversing — this unfinished slide forecasts an upside breakout in 80% of cases (ascending RABF), 75% (descending), and 79% (wedge). The partial rise works much worse (36–61%) — don't base decisions on it.
Entry context matters. The ascending RABF favors a short (up to 3 months) rise beforehand; the descending wedge works best as a correction within an uptrend, after which the trend resumes. A fast, near-vertical rally straight into the pattern is, in Bulkowski's data, a recurring feature of failed trades — an overheated move fizzles more often than it continues.
Caveat: US stocks, daily chart, bull market. On crypto and lower timeframes nobody has rigorously measured these proportions — treat the numbers as a reference point, not a guarantee.
How to Trade Broadening Wedges and Formations
Base setup: long on an upside breakout. Entry after a close above the upper line (in the descending RABF — above horizontal resistance; in the wedge — above the descending upper line). Stop below the last low inside the pattern or, conservatively, below its floor. Target: in the RABF, the pattern's height (highest high minus the horizontal line) multiplied by the target hit rate and projected from the breakout point. In the descending wedge it's simpler: the target is the pattern's highest high — and that works 83% of the time.
Leading setup: partial decline. If price, after touching the upper line, reverses down but clearly fails to reach the lower line and starts rising again — you can enter before the breakout, with a stop below the low of that reversal. A 75–80% hit rate is the best this family offers, and entering lower means a better risk-reward ratio. Fairness requires a caveat: a partial decline is easy to confuse with an ordinary pause on the way down — the signal is the reversal itself, not just a pause.
Contrarian setup: busted downward breakout. A downside breakout, a brief slide, a return to the middle, and an exit above the pattern's high — a recurring winning scenario in Bulkowski's data. A fake downside breakout shakes out weak hands, and then demand has a clear path.
What not to trade: shorts "by the name" on descending-labeled formations (a 64–72% chance the market slaps you in the face), longs beneath a clearly visible resistance (in Bulkowski's data, the most common killer of these trades), and entries right after a vertical rally straight into the pattern.
Management: a throwback will come in ~62–68% of cases — after an upside breakout, price usually returns to retest the line. You can use this to add to a position, but know that throwbacks and pullbacks statistically worsen the subsequent result. Wide, tall patterns perform better than small, tight ones.
Myth vs. Data
Myth: "A broadening formation tilted downward is a bearish structure — widening swings plus falling lines mean capitulation and further declines."
Data: the descending broadening wedge breaks up 72% of the time, the descending RABF 64% of the time. The average upward move is ~3x larger than the downward one. In a bull market, the broadening family is a long machine — and the most "bearish"-looking variant is the most bullish of them all.
Where does the myth come from? From carrying over intuition from classic wedges. In a regular falling wedge, the lines converge and you really do play a reversal upward — but the logic there is "supply is weakening, the range is contracting." Here it's the opposite: the range widens, yet the directional result is the same. The market doesn't read pattern names. The trader does — and it's usually the trader, not the market, who falls into the trap of the "descending" label.
No sugarcoating: these aren't first-tier patterns — rankings of 18–29 put them solidly mid-table, not gems. But they have two rare virtues: a readable leading signal (the partial decline) and, in the case of the descending wedge, one of the most reliable targets in the catalog. If you're going to trade this family, trade it long, after a close beyond the line, with nothing overhead. And if you're hunting for shorts — look elsewhere.
FAQ
What's the difference between a broadening wedge and a megaphone? A megaphone widens symmetrically (the upper line rises, the lower falls). The RABF has one horizontal line, while the descending broadening wedge has both lines falling but diverging. The shared trait across the whole family: the range of swings widens, the opposite of triangles.
Which way do these patterns break out? Statistically upward: 55% (ascending RABF), 64% (descending RABF), 72% (descending broadening wedge). The average gain after an upside breakout is 39–43%, while the average decline after a downside breakout is only 13–15% — which is why this whole family pays off mainly on the long side.
What is a partial decline? An unfinished slide: price bounces off the upper line but fails to reach the lower one and reverses upward. In this family, it's the most effective leading signal — it forecasts an upside breakout in 75–80% of cases and lets you enter lower, with a tighter stop, before the breakout actually happens.
FAQ
What's the difference between a broadening wedge and a megaphone?
Which way do right-angled broadening formations break out?
What is a partial decline and why does it matter so much?
Trader and founder of Strefa Tradingu. He’s been breaking crypto down on YouTube for years — no hype, no signals, with a focus on market structure and risk management.
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