Bump-and-Run Reversal (BARR) — Bulkowski's Overheated-Trend Pattern

Bump-and-Run Reversal is one of the rare patterns in Bulkowski's catalog with no pedigree tracing back to Edwards and Magee. Bulkowski invented BARR himself — the top variant in 1996, while researching trendline-based price prediction (originally named the bump-and-run formation, or BARF, a name he changed "for obvious reasons"), and the bottom variant three years later. Unlike a lot of self-invented patterns that fall apart under measurement, BARR bottom comes out of the table as the single best-ranked pattern in the whole catalog — rank 1 out of 39 in a bull market. This isn't a niche curiosity. It's one of the most thoroughly documented setups Bulkowski has ever cataloged.

The concept itself is simple: the market overheats and then reverts to normal. A calm trend, then a sharp acceleration on heavy volume (often triggered by news — an earnings beat, an upgraded rating), and once the fuel runs out, price gives back the entire overheated leg and returns near the point where the acceleration began.

How to Identify a Bump-and-Run Reversal

BARR unfolds in three phases, always in the same order. The bottom and top variants are mirror images of each other, so we'll cover both side by side.

1. Lead-in (the frying pan's handle). Bulkowski describes BARR bottom as "a frying pan tilted down, with the handle on the left" — that handle is the lead-in. In the bottom variant, price declines along a trendline sloped 0–45°; in the top variant, it rises along a trendline sloped 30–45°. It lasts at least a month (35 days on average for the bottom variant), but can run longer. Avoid flat or near-horizontal trendlines — without a clear slope, you have no reference point for phase two.

1. Bump (the overheating). This is where the real action happens. The slope steepens noticeably: to 60° or more for BARR bottom, to 45–60° for BARR top. The key numeric criterion: the bump's height must be at least twice the lead-in's height, measured vertically from the trendline to the extreme. Volume rises through this phase — for BARR top, Bulkowski notes the acceleration often coincides with a fundamental catalyst (an earnings report, a rating upgrade). After the bump, price rounds over and heads back toward the original lead-in trendline.

1. Run (the return and breakout). Price works its way back to the extended lead-in trendline and tests it — sometimes once, sometimes several times, forming an extra bump along the way (a dual bump: 12% of BARR bottom cases, 18–21% of BARR top cases). Confirmation comes only from a close beyond that line — above it for the bottom, below it for the top. Bulkowski is uncompromising here: without that close, the pattern isn't valid, no matter how good it looks on the chart.

The vertical scale must be arithmetic, not logarithmic — otherwise the height measurements for the lead-in and the bump (and therefore the 2:1 ratio) will be distorted.

What the Numbers Say (Bulkowski, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns)

Terms we'll be using: break-even failure rate — how often price, after a confirmed breakout, failed to travel even a fraction of a percent in the expected direction; average move — from the breakout to the extreme, on perfect trades; throwback/pullback — a return to the breakout line within days of the breakout; target % — how often price reaches the measure-rule target.

Bull market.

Let's read this slowly.

BARR bottom sits at the very top of Bulkowski's catalog. Rank 1 out of 39 reversal patterns in a bull market isn't a statistical fluke on a thin sample — it's built on 1,099 perfect trades. A 9% break-even failure rate means nine out of ten confirmed breakouts actually moved in the right direction at all, and the 55% average move is one of the highest of any reversal pattern in the whole catalog. On top of that, the target (the pattern's highest point) is hit 76% of the time — unusually high, since most patterns land somewhere in the 50–65% range. Bulkowski notes that BARR bottom also holds up well in a bear market, ranking second best there — unusual versatility for a reversal pattern.

BARR top is solid, but it isn't the leader. Rank 3 out of 36 is still top-tier, and Bulkowski describes it as performing well "in both bull and bear markets, judging by the high average decline." A 17% average move down with a 14% failure rate is a good set of numbers, but the weaker spot is the target hit rate of just 44% — fewer than half of trades reach the full measure-rule target. This is a pattern that calls direction reliably, but the move often falls short of the textbook goal.

The bottom/top asymmetry is real and measurable. It isn't that bottoms "always" beat tops in reversal-pattern statistics — in plenty of other pairs (the diamond, for instance) it runs the other way. Here, BARR bottom wins on every axis: lower failure rate, higher average move, higher target-hit rate, higher overall ranking.

Caveat: US stocks, daily chart, bull market. Nobody has measured BARR this way on crypto or intraday timeframes — the lead-in/bump/run structure assumes a relatively calm underlying market, which is rare on crypto.

How to Trade a Bump-and-Run Reversal

Rule zero: measure the 2:1 ratio. Before you call anything a BARR, measure the lead-in height vertically (from the trendline to the lowest/highest point in the first quarter of the pattern) and the bump height (from the same line to the bump's extreme). The bump must be at least twice as tall. Without that, you're looking at an ordinary accelerating trend, not a reversal pattern.

Setup one (the strongest): BARR bottom. Go long only after price closes above the extended lead-in line (0–45°). Stop below the last low of the run phase. Target: the measure rule — the pattern's highest point (A), the level before the decline started. The data says price gets there 76% of the time. Bulkowski also offers a more aggressive alternative: draw a series of lines parallel to the main trendline, spaced one lead-in height apart (the warning lines, marked E) — enter on a break above the next line up, before waiting for the full trendline confirmation.

Setup two: BARR top. Go short only after price closes below the 30-degree line. Stop above the last high of the run phase. Target: the measure rule — the pattern's lowest point (A). Since the target is only hit 44% of the time, consider banking partial profit earlier — for example at the "warning line" (a line parallel to the main trendline, offset by the lead-in height), which Bulkowski flags as a signal that price is entering the sell zone.

Watch for the dual bump. In 12–21% of cases, the market gets a second wind — price bounces off the lead-in line, forms a smaller second bump, and only then breaks through. Don't treat the first touch of the line as an automatic entry signal — wait for a close beyond it, not just a touch.

Throwback and pullback are the norm, not the exception. 61% for the bottom and 64% for the top are high rates — more often than not, price returns to tag the trendline after the breakout before continuing toward the target. Don't panic on the first retracement after a breakout as long as the line holds.

Myth vs Measurement

Myth: "Patterns built on a violent acceleration (a spike, a blow-off top) are a speculative trap — trading them is gambling, not investing."

Measurement: given the right structure (a bump-to-lead-in ratio of at least 2:1, confirmed with a close beyond the trendline), a sharp acceleration followed by a reversal is one of the best-documented patterns in Bulkowski's entire catalog. BARR bottom, ranked 1 out of 39 with a 76% target-hit rate, isn't gambling — it's one of the more predictable structures ever measured.

Where does the myth come from? Because "a fast move equals an irrational market equals an unpredictable aftermath" sounds reasonable on its face. In practice, the overheating leaves a mathematical fingerprint: it has to be proportionally at least twice as strong as the trend that preceded it, and it has to be confirmed by a close, not just a touch of the line. Traders who jump into a spike without that structure really are gambling — but that's a failure of criteria, not a flaw in the BARR pattern itself.

No sugarcoating: BARR bottom is one of the few patterns in this catalog where you can say "the numbers are unambiguously good" without any caveat attached. BARR top is solid, but don't expect a full measure-rule move every time — statistically, half the trades fall short. In both variants, the key is the 2:1 ratio and the patience to wait for a close beyond the line — everything after that is a consequence of the setup, not a guess.

FAQ

What is the Bump-and-Run Reversal pattern? It's a pattern Thomas Bulkowski invented himself (BARR top discovered in 1996, BARR bottom in 1999) describing an overheated trend: a calm lead-in phase, then a violent acceleration (the bump) at roughly twice the lead-in's angle, followed by a run — a return to the original trendline and a breakout in the opposite direction.

Which BARR variant performs better? BARR bottom: rank 1 out of 39 in a bull market — the single best result in Bulkowski's entire catalog, a 9% failure rate, an average rise of 55%, and the price target hit 76% of the time. BARR top is solid but ranks lower: 3 out of 36, a 14% failure rate, an average decline of 17%, and the target hit only 44% of the time.

How do you set a price target for a BARR pattern? Using the measure rule: for BARR bottom, the target is the highest point of the pattern (point A, the price where the decline began); for BARR top, the target is the lowest point of the pattern (point A, the price where the rise began). It's the distance price covered before the market overheated — the pattern assumes a full round trip back to that starting point.

FAQ

Rafał — Krypto Bez Ściemy

Trader and founder of Strefa Tradingu. He’s been breaking crypto down on YouTube for years — no hype, no signals, with a focus on market structure and risk management.

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