ICT 2024 Mentorship Lecture 5 — The Asian Session NDOG Model

Lecture 5 of the ICT 2024 mentorship heads into the quietest stretch of the trading day — the Asian session — and shows that even there, a mechanical entry model can be built. The reference point isn't the whole overnight range, though; it's one specific gap: the NDOG, which forms at exactly 6:00 PM ET. The lecture was built with traders who work a standard 9-to-5 in mind — people who don't have the hours to sit at the chart during the New York session.

What this lecture covers

At 5:00 PM ET, trading on forex and futures halts for an hour. When the market comes back to life at 6:00 PM ET, price very often reopens at a different level than it closed — and that difference creates the gap known as the New Day Opening Gap (NDOG). Lecture 5 treats this specific, nightly-recurring gap as the central reference point for the entire Asian session.

The model calls for deliberate patience: the gap forming at 6:00 PM ET is not itself a signal to enter. Instead of reacting to the gap directly, you wait for price to "give you a clue" — to form a first clear swing away from the gap in each direction. Those two points become the initial liquidity levels around which the rest of the night plays out. Only after 7:00 PM ET, once real order flow more consistently shows up, does the model look for a directional candle close relative to the gap and an entry using the Optimal Trade Entry method.

One thing worth noting: while the lecture is aimed at traders holding a 9-to-5 job in the US, whether this window feels like a comfortable evening session or the middle of the night depends entirely on the trader's own time zone — always convert 6:00–9:00 PM ET into local time before deciding whether it's a session you can realistically sit through, or one better handled with pending orders prepared in advance.

It's also worth asking why ICT devoted a whole lecture to this window in the first place, given that he openly admits the Asian session tends to be the least exciting part of the day. The answer is practical, not strategic: not every trader can sit at the chart during the New York session — especially someone with a day job, for whom 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM ET fall right in the middle of the workday. Lecture 5's model gives that trader an alternative window in which to build a position under the same philosophy — "wait for confirmation, don't guess the direction" — just shifted to hours that actually fit around the rest of their life. It's a model of fitting the method to the trader's calendar, not of chasing the "best" session of the day.

The model step by step

The full sequence from the gap opening to closing the trade:

1. Wait for 6:00 PM ET. This is when the market reopens after the hourly halt and leaves behind the NDOG.
2. Mark the upper and lower boundary of the gap. This is your baseline reference for the rest of the night.
3. Apply the 20-pip rule. If the gap is wider than 20 pips, also mark its midpoint (the consequent encroachment) — an additional reactive level inside the gap. For a narrower gap, you can skip this step.
4. Don't trade straight into the gap. The moment the gap opens is not itself a signal. Wait for the market to show which way it actually wants to go.
5. Mark the initial liquidity. The first clear local high formed on the opposite side of the gap becomes initial buy-side liquidity; the first local low becomes initial sell-side liquidity.
6. Watch for activity through 7:00 PM ET. If the market hasn't started genuinely reaching for either level by this time, the model says to sit the night out — a sign of flat, rangy trading ahead.
7. Wait for a directional close relative to the gap. A candle closing clearly above the NDOG points to a bullish scenario; a close below points to a bearish one.
8. Enter using OTE. On the retracement of the move that just formed, in the classic 62–79% zone, per the Optimal Trade Entry method.
9. Place the stop beyond the swing formed after 7:00 PM. Below the low (bullish scenario) or above the high (bearish scenario) of that specific swing — not in the middle of the move.
10. Set the target at the initial liquidity or beyond. The initial buy-side/sell-side level from step 5 is the first target; if there's a larger liquidity pool beyond it (an old session high/low), consider extending the trade.

How to apply it

The model works best on instruments that genuinely trade during Asian hours. The yen pairs — USD/JPY, AUD/JPY — plus AUD/USD give the cleanest picture, since these are the pairs where Asian-session participants actually drive real volume rather than noise. NQ and ES futures also leave a visible gap on the 6:00 PM ET CME reopen, and gold (XAU/USD) regularly produces an OTE signal in the 7:00–9:00 PM ET window.

It's worth pairing this model with our Asian Range article — both tools look at the same stretch of the day from a different angle: the Asian Range measures the entire overnight range and looks for a sweep of it at the London open, while Lecture 5's model focuses purely on the NDOG and the liquidity that builds directly around it in the first hours after 6:00 PM ET. Traders building a full picture of the night often track both levels at once — the gap as a reference point and the wider range as the frame for the whole move.

Example on USD/JPY: at 6:00 PM ET, the pair opens with a gap of about 15 pips versus the prior close — below the 20-pip threshold, so you skip marking the midpoint. Over the next hour, price first dips below the lower boundary of the gap, forming initial sell-side liquidity, then reverses. By 7:00 PM ET there's already clear activity. At 7:15 PM, a candle closes above the upper boundary of the NDOG — a bullish directional signal. A retracement into the 62–79% zone of the last swing gives a long entry, stop below the low formed after 7:00 PM, target at the initial buy-side liquidity marked earlier.

Common mistakes

• Entering straight into the 6:00 PM gap. The lecture is explicit about not trading the gap right away — wait for a clue from the market first.
• Skipping the 20-pip rule. On a wide gap, skipping the midpoint removes the most reactive level inside it.
• Forcing a trade on a flat night. If the market isn't moving by 7:00 PM ET, that's information to stand aside — not a reason to keep waiting indefinitely.
• Entering before the directional close. Getting in before the candle actually closes above or below the gap flips the logic of the model.
• The wrong pair for the session. GBP/USD or EUR/USD usually don't produce a clean signal in the Asian window — this model works best on yen pairs and index futures.
• A stop right at the retracement level. The stop needs to sit beyond the entire swing formed after 7:00 PM, not just behind the OTE entry point.
• Trading without pending orders. For anyone outside US time zones, the real window can fall in the middle of the night — without a plan and pending orders set in advance, it's easy to simply sleep through the setup.

Lecture 5 pairs well with the third lecture in the series, dedicated entirely to the mechanics of NDOG and NWOG gaps — that's where you'll find the fuller explanation of why these specific gaps work as reference levels. If you're after a broader picture of what happens between the New York close and the London open, our Asian Range article is the natural companion to this model.

One last practical note: Lecture 5's model isn't an invitation to trade every single night of the week. The Sunday reopen after the weekend, holiday weeks, and nights where the Asian session overlaps with unusual regional news tend to distort both the NDOG itself and the quality of the initial liquidity around it. Selectivity — deliberately skipping nights that don't meet the condition in step 6 — matters here just as much as the entry mechanics. The model is meant to deliver a handful of clean opportunities a week, not a trade every single night regardless of conditions.

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Rafał — Krypto Bez Ściemy

Trader and founder of Strefa Tradingu. He’s been breaking crypto down on YouTube for years — no hype, no signals, with a focus on market structure and risk management.

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