ICT Daily Bias — How to Set the Direction of the Day

You can know every FVG, every order block and all four killzones by heart — and still lose consistently if you trade them in the wrong direction. Daily bias, the assumed direction of the current trading day, is the foundation of the entire ICT method: the filter that tells you whether you're hunting long entries today, shorts, or sitting on your hands. This article is the pillar of the directional-analysis section — it shows where bias comes from, which three signals you read off the daily chart, and what a concrete pre-session routine looks like, on BTC, ETH and forex pairs.

What daily bias is

Daily bias is the expected direction of the day's dominant move. A bullish bias means you expect the day to ultimately deliver a move up — so during the session windows you look exclusively for buying opportunities at demand zones. A bearish bias is the mirror image: you're only interested in short entries from supply zones. The third option, which beginners forget about, is just as important: an unreadable bias, meaning a no-trade day.

Notice what bias does NOT promise. It doesn't say every candle will go its way — on the contrary, in the Power of 3 model a bullish day often begins with a move down (the manipulation), which only builds the fuel for the real expansion. Bias defines the direction of the day's dominant leg, not the direction of the next fifteen minutes.

It's also worth separating bias from trend. Trend describes what price has already done — the structure visible in hindsight on the chart. Bias is a forecast for the upcoming session, derived from the trend, the imbalances and the liquidity targets. The market can be in a clear uptrend and still carry a bearish bias for a single session — for instance, when the nearest large pool of liquidity sits below price and the market reaches for it first.

The three signals you read bias from

In the ICT framework, price moves for only two reasons: to rebalance an imbalance or to reach for liquidity. Add the structural context, and you get three signals to check before every session.

Signal 1: D1 order flow — the daily structure

The most important of the three. Institutions position themselves on the daily chart, so it's D1 — not H1 or M15 — that tells you which way big capital is flowing. The read is simple: a series of higher highs and higher lows is bullish order flow, a series of lower lows and lower highs — bearish. A fresh market structure shift (MSS) on D1 is the strongest single argument for a change of direction.

Signal 2: an imbalance to rebalance

You scan the higher timeframes for unfilled inefficiencies: FVGs on D1 and H4, weekly opening gaps, zones price flew through in a single candle with no trading along the way. Price tends to return to these places. A large unfilled imbalance below price is an argument for a move down; an imbalance above — for a move up.

Signal 3: the draw on liquidity — the liquidity magnet

The draw on liquidity is the nearest significant pool of resting stop orders the market may reach for: an old high, an old low, equal highs or equal lows, the previous session's extreme. Price gravitates toward such places because that's where the liquidity institutions need to fill large positions is waiting — the details are in the article on buy-side and sell-side liquidity. The direction of the nearest big magnet is very often the direction of the day.

A separate, practical spot in this puzzle belongs to the previous day's high and low. These are the most frequently attacked liquidity pools of all: a huge share of days begins with a sweep of one of these levels before the real move starts. That's why you always have them marked before the session — if the bias is bearish, the typical scenario is a sweep of the previous day's high and only then the sell-off; with a bullish bias, the market likes to take out yesterday's low first.

Bullish and bearish bias in practice

You set a bullish bias when D1 is printing higher highs and lows, an unfilled imbalance or a large liquidity target sits above price, and the H4 structure isn't openly contradicting that read. The plan for such a day: you mark the zones of interest below price — an order block, an FVG, the OTE zone — and wait for price to retrace into them. You confirm the entry on M15–M30 with a shift of structure to the upside, and you target the draw on liquidity on D1.

A bearish bias is the mirror: lower lows and highs on D1, an imbalance or liquidity magnet below, supply zones above price as short entry locations. An extra supporting clue for both variants: the previous day's close. A close above the midpoint of yesterday's range favors continuation up; below the midpoint — down. It's not a standalone signal, but it settles doubts nicely when the three main signals read 2:1.

The pre-session routine — step by step

You run this checklist once a day, ideally 30–60 minutes before the London killzone (2:00–5:00 AM ET) or the New York killzone (7:00–10:00 AM ET). On crypto, which trades 24/7, the reference clock stays the same — institutional liquidity on BTC and ETH still flows with the forex sessions.

1. Open D1 and read the order flow. Higher highs and lows, lower lows and highs, or unreadable consolidation?
2. Mark the unfilled imbalances. FVGs on D1/H4 and weekly opening gaps that price hasn't rebalanced yet.
3. Mark the liquidity magnets. The nearest old high and old low above and below price, equal extremes, and — non-negotiable — the previous day's high and low.
4. Check yesterday's close relative to the midpoint of its range — as a supporting signal.
5. Verify H4. The four-hour structure doesn't have to match D1 exactly, but it can't openly contradict the read.
6. Set the bias — or pass. Three signals aligned = a confident bias. Two out of three = a conditional bias, smaller size. Each signal pointing a different way = a no-trade day.

The whole routine takes a few minutes and saves hours spent sitting in positions opened against the current. If you want an even faster version — that's the one-timeframe trick, which reduces the entire read to the last MSS on D1.

Common mistakes

• Reading bias off a low timeframe. A daily bias has to come from the daily chart. A read from H1 or M15 changes its mind on every intraday jolt and produces conflicting signals several times per session.
• Ignoring the draw on liquidity. Structure alone isn't enough — the market often sweeps the nearer liquidity pool first and only then moves in the dominant direction. The liquidity magnet tells you which side of the chart is pulling price.
• Forcing a bias. An inside bar on D1, a balanced range, signals pointing three different ways — all of it means "no trade today". There is no rule that says you must trade every day.
• Changing the bias mid-session. A move against the bias looks scary exactly when the manipulation phase is running. Whoever changes their mind after the first counter-move systematically enters the wrong way at the worst spot.
• Confusing bias with the current direction of price. Price rising against a bearish bias isn't proof you were wrong — it's potential manipulation before the real sell-off. The answer is: wait for the zone and the confirmation, don't panic.
• Skipping the previous day's high and low. These are the two cheapest-to-mark and most frequently working levels in the whole method. A day without them on the chart is an analysis missing half its map.

Bias is the first building block of every ICT analysis — but only the first. How to turn it into a concrete entry is shown in top-down analysis, which walks you from D1 through H4 and H1 all the way to execution on M15. The shortcut method for setting direction is in the daily bias trick, and the mechanics of price magnets — in the article on liquidity. Start with a simple exercise: for two weeks, set a bias every morning and write it down before you see what the market does. The journal of reads alone will teach you more than another ten hours of videos.

FAQ

Rafał — Krypto Bez Ściemy

Trader and founder of Strefa Tradingu. He’s been breaking crypto down on YouTube for years — no hype, no signals, with a focus on market structure and risk management.

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